2010 - an election odyssey

Well any point in the last three weeks would have been a good one for me to turn attention to this woefully overlooked blog. This is, of course, due to the small matter of a general election! So finally i get round to it and yes - it is almost over - but the most important bit isn't. That being the actual election.

Party leaders strutting up and down the country trying to increase likability is a nice warm-up act and certainly churns out some entertainment but for most people (this time more than any other) it tends not to help in the actual decision making. TV debates maybe, but having heard nothing but very drawn-out analysis and opinions on them for the last three weeks I'm somewhat disinclined to add to it.

I thought, instead, a brief go at predicting the result might be appropriate, if you read it before the result it will be interesting and informative and if you read it afterwards it will be either laughably inaccurate or impressively close (or neither and therefore dull, but lets not dwell on that)

so here it goes...

Conservatives will be first. With most seats and most votes but NOT enough for an overall majority. They just haven't managed to pull away in terms of popular support and in the end that will leave them just short of the win they need to lay rights to forming the next government. I say "just short" because i do think they will come reasonably close, possibly just a hand-full of seats away from the prize, but ultimately they still fail.

Labour will be second. Defiantly-defiantly in seats and probably-defiantly in votes. Its seats that matter though so a few people might whine about the vote-count but it wont alter the fact that they will be the second largest party. considering how badly they were doing at one point this result might not be a complete catastrophe. Think of it as grasping defeat from the jaws of infinitely-more-embarrassing-defeat.

Liberal Democrats live in third and they will not be moving (much as they would like to). they may come close(ish) to Labour in votes but they will not surpass them. The surge of support for Nick Clegg was delicate and shallow, alot of it will have blown away now the big TV debate craze is behind us. Despite this they will do better than they have in recent years as they now enjoy a raised profile so people will at least remember them while they are in the voting booth and plumping for the underdog is always an attractive alternative for peoples support.

So what does this mean? well my prediction would leave us with a hung parliament and that is certainly the most likely outcome of this general election. the Toris could still win it but its a slim chance they will and that leaves us, very definitively, with a hung parliament. I could write a whole new blog on what that would entail - and maybe i will - but for now i will leave it there and let you get back to your face-booking or whatever...